Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 04-05-2010, 11:34 AM

I believe few would argue (and thank you gentlemen, Charlie and For The Lead for making that case from different angles) that #8 Cardiff Giant was not a win contender in the Santa Anita Derby. My own proposition in that race was that given its not just 1 line but last 2 lines early energy expenditure ranks, its in-the-money finishes in Graded Stakes this year, and not least its (as it turned out) 70-1 odds, Cardiff was worth something to Place and Show, or belonged somewhere in trifecta or superfecta play (which I don't do, currently).

Shall we agree (please) that performance in calibre of race (race class) can dovetail and often reinforce matchup observation (both/either visual or velocity/energy disbursement)? Any person newly finding their way in the concepts of the Sartin Methodology must attempt to come to grips with the matchup, whether visually applied if you can, or using software to identify energy disbursement patterns. At the same time, knowing which horses' performances at lesser tracks or against lesser competition will just not prove out against 'higher calibre' horses will save you from blindly trusting numbers where they just don't prove out - in general.

For example, Digger in Saturday's AQU Carter Handicap (http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6705)? As Charles suggests in that thread, were Digger's 2 Laurel Stakes performances of obviously lesser 'class' compared to the others, thus inflating his numbers compared to the rest? Or, was he a worthy shot at the 8-1 odds offered (e.g. along with Warrior's Reward at 4-1 @ 1 MTP)?

As it was, I was fortunate to cash bets in 3 of the 4 major stakes races discussed Saturday (SA Derby, Carter, Illinois Derby)

Ted

04-05-2010, 11:34 AM	#103
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,255	I believe few would argue (and thank you gentlemen, Charlie and For The Lead for making that case from different angles) that #8 Cardiff Giant was not a win contender in the Santa Anita Derby. My own proposition in that race was that given its not just 1 line but last 2 lines early energy expenditure ranks, its in-the-money finishes in Graded Stakes this year, and not least its (as it turned out) 70-1 odds, Cardiff was worth something to Place and Show, or belonged somewhere in trifecta or superfecta play (which I don't do, currently). Shall we agree (please) that performance in calibre of race (race class) can dovetail and often reinforce matchup observation (both/either visual or velocity/energy disbursement)? Any person newly finding their way in the concepts of the Sartin Methodology must attempt to come to grips with the matchup, whether visually applied if you can, or using software to identify energy disbursement patterns. At the same time, knowing which horses' performances at lesser tracks or against lesser competition will just not prove out against 'higher calibre' horses will save you from blindly trusting numbers where they just don't prove out - in general. For example, Digger in Saturday's AQU Carter Handicap (http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6705)? As Charles suggests in that thread, were Digger's 2 Laurel Stakes performances of obviously lesser 'class' compared to the others, thus inflating his numbers compared to the rest? Or, was he a worthy shot at the 8-1 odds offered (e.g. along with Warrior's Reward at 4-1 @ 1 MTP)? As it was, I was fortunate to cash bets in 3 of the 4 major stakes races discussed Saturday (SA Derby, Carter, Illinois Derby) Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™