Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lsosa54 · 04-05-2010, 12:37 PM

Well, Charlie, your putting up the Sunland Derby got me back into posting a bit, so for that I say thanks. Didn't have time to post up the SA Derby beforehand, but here's how I looked at it. I passed on the Wood as I didn't see any value and all the poly lines in the Illinois Derby and the fact that I didn't see a ton of value made me pass also.

Since SAX is my home circuit, I saw some value right away. I think both you, FTL, and Ted make valid points. My approach to this race was to take the best poly route speed # showing for each contender as long as the paceline came from a graded race. My preference is grade 1 but obviously only Lucky I think had a G1 paceline available.

What struck me initially on that basis was, that Lucky was basically on par with some of the others and didn't deserve to be that kind of favorite. I also thought that 102 earned on the dirt might cause some regression. Also, I thought the SA Derby was not his goal but instead to get ready on the dirt for Kentucky.

I'm at work so I don't have access to my materials but regarding Cardiff Giant, his best speed # (BRIS) in a graded race was an 88. Based on the fact that I had about about 6 others with superior speed figs in a graded race, I wouldn't allow the poor animal near my computer. Although I have on occassion seen mcl/claiming types get real good and do damage in graded races, it is very rare. Since I lean more to Brohamer than anyone else in the Methodology, the sale of the horse to M Racing trained by Mike Puhich was also a negative. I have been following Puhich's forays into SoCal from Seattle for 20 years. However, had he had a competitive graded poly route, I would have evaluated him. Let's remember that Jimmy used to say that the horse had to be "fast enough" to win.

I think I ran about 6 contenders through EXDC/Thoromation and no matter if I adjusted or not, I couldn't get Lucky better than the Designated Place Horse. SAX routes favor the SP screen and Caracortado and Sydney's had their animated noses on the wire together. On the EXDC side, it was clearly Sydney's.

I then went back and checked Lucky's last race on the dirt just to see if that would put him on top in then SP screen and when it didn't, I knew I had a bet. I felt pretty strongly about Sydney's but could not ignore Caracortado so I made a 2 horse win bet @ 7-2 and 7-1. $9 back for every $4 was ok by me. I had 4 horses as possible exacta partners, of which Setsuko, Alphie's, and Lucky were 3 (I forget the 4th), but I did not play the exacta. Of course, Mr. Gomez got Lucky trapped on the inside so I'll take any help I can get.

It's not often I see a wire to wire paceline win put the horse on top in the SP screen esp. at 1 1/8m, but it's usually a good sign. Jimmy knew what he was doing when he programmed the match up into EXDC.

I admire Charlie's passion for the pure manual matchup just as I have passion for my method as I'm sure Ted and FTL have with their approaches. There is room for all of us - we may not get the same winners, but win we will. Maybe we should combine our efforts and put out a tip sheet? OK, just kidding.

04-05-2010, 12:37 PM	#106
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Well, Charlie, your putting up the Sunland Derby got me back into posting a bit, so for that I say thanks. Didn't have time to post up the SA Derby beforehand, but here's how I looked at it. I passed on the Wood as I didn't see any value and all the poly lines in the Illinois Derby and the fact that I didn't see a ton of value made me pass also. Since SAX is my home circuit, I saw some value right away. I think both you, FTL, and Ted make valid points. My approach to this race was to take the best poly route speed # showing for each contender as long as the paceline came from a graded race. My preference is grade 1 but obviously only Lucky I think had a G1 paceline available. What struck me initially on that basis was, that Lucky was basically on par with some of the others and didn't deserve to be that kind of favorite. I also thought that 102 earned on the dirt might cause some regression. Also, I thought the SA Derby was not his goal but instead to get ready on the dirt for Kentucky. I'm at work so I don't have access to my materials but regarding Cardiff Giant, his best speed # (BRIS) in a graded race was an 88. Based on the fact that I had about about 6 others with superior speed figs in a graded race, I wouldn't allow the poor animal near my computer. Although I have on occassion seen mcl/claiming types get real good and do damage in graded races, it is very rare. Since I lean more to Brohamer than anyone else in the Methodology, the sale of the horse to M Racing trained by Mike Puhich was also a negative. I have been following Puhich's forays into SoCal from Seattle for 20 years. However, had he had a competitive graded poly route, I would have evaluated him. Let's remember that Jimmy used to say that the horse had to be "fast enough" to win. I think I ran about 6 contenders through EXDC/Thoromation and no matter if I adjusted or not, I couldn't get Lucky better than the Designated Place Horse. SAX routes favor the SP screen and Caracortado and Sydney's had their animated noses on the wire together. On the EXDC side, it was clearly Sydney's. I then went back and checked Lucky's last race on the dirt just to see if that would put him on top in then SP screen and when it didn't, I knew I had a bet. I felt pretty strongly about Sydney's but could not ignore Caracortado so I made a 2 horse win bet @ 7-2 and 7-1. $9 back for every $4 was ok by me. I had 4 horses as possible exacta partners, of which Setsuko, Alphie's, and Lucky were 3 (I forget the 4th), but I did not play the exacta. Of course, Mr. Gomez got Lucky trapped on the inside so I'll take any help I can get. It's not often I see a wire to wire paceline win put the horse on top in the SP screen esp. at 1 1/8m, but it's usually a good sign. Jimmy knew what he was doing when he programmed the match up into EXDC. I admire Charlie's passion for the pure manual matchup just as I have passion for my method as I'm sure Ted and FTL have with their approaches. There is room for all of us - we may not get the same winners, but win we will. Maybe we should combine our efforts and put out a tip sheet? OK, just kidding.