|
Sidenote on use of 6.5 turf lines from SA
last year I did a study of the relationship between all turf sprints in Socal and SA 6.5 turf sprints down the hill. The adjusted speed ratings (SR) for down the hill turf sprints are about 4 to six points less than flat sprints at Hollywood for the same horse (only compared what each horse did vs himself on the different surfaces). My study included sprint winners on both surfaces. Very few approached their Hollywood SRs at SA, Even California Flag was 3-4 points low, so I mentally do not dismiss a SA 73 when matching against other flat turf sprinters in the 76 to 78 range. The program usually adjusts the SA turf sprint lines out of such matchups. So if I have 3 or 4 flat sprinters vs 3 or 4 SA down the hillers, I usually eliminate the worst of both and bet accordingly.
Because of the way the SA course is set up it messes with the internal fractions of the race a lot. So when you adjust a 21.2 first fraction from SA it shows up as a high 22 low 23 first fraction. And there is about a 2.7 second adjustment needed to slow down SA sprinters at the 6f mark in order to compare to final times for horses that sprinted 6f on turf.
Food for thought,
Bill
|