Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lsosa54 · 04-09-2010, 02:13 PM

Gotcha, Bill, now I'm clear. Hey, if I got you to start looking at a track model, then I feel I did my job. Keep it as simple as you can.

I didn't have time to cap yesterday but I went back and looked at it. I'm at work so I can't put up any screens but here's the way I worked it:

My contenders were the 4 horses that had previously run on the turf - Foxy Bailey, Vikkilee, Entabeni, and Forever My Love. I did not consider the poly horses as contenders.

We gave Foxy and Vikki the same pacelines.

I used Entabeni's down the hill race - visually it's not so good looking but he was 3 lengths off at the 2nd call. I didn't want to use a dirt sprint if I could avoid it.

I wasn't particularly fond of the M/L favorite as he didn't show a turf sprint and I wasn't about to give him his last turf route as the speed fig (BRIS) seemed aberrant. I think I went one back on Forever My Love.

As i've mentioned before, the turf has leaned towards my EXDC screen, especially at a mile but at all distances, including down the hill.

I adjusted the race as the total energy produced by the down the hill pacelines is always significantly higher than an HOl turf sprint or any turf route.

My EXDC screen showed Vikkilee as a comfortable winner with Entabeni 2nd. My SP screen showed Forever My Love as the winner, which often happens when you shorten up a mile paceline - Entabeni again was 2nd.

If you're betting 2 horses to win, you bet Vickilee and Entabeni. Every $4 got you $7.20, a not too shabby 80% return.

04-09-2010, 02:13 PM	#14
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Gotcha, Bill, now I'm clear. Hey, if I got you to start looking at a track model, then I feel I did my job. Keep it as simple as you can. I didn't have time to cap yesterday but I went back and looked at it. I'm at work so I can't put up any screens but here's the way I worked it: My contenders were the 4 horses that had previously run on the turf - Foxy Bailey, Vikkilee, Entabeni, and Forever My Love. I did not consider the poly horses as contenders. We gave Foxy and Vikki the same pacelines. I used Entabeni's down the hill race - visually it's not so good looking but he was 3 lengths off at the 2nd call. I didn't want to use a dirt sprint if I could avoid it. I wasn't particularly fond of the M/L favorite as he didn't show a turf sprint and I wasn't about to give him his last turf route as the speed fig (BRIS) seemed aberrant. I think I went one back on Forever My Love. As i've mentioned before, the turf has leaned towards my EXDC screen, especially at a mile but at all distances, including down the hill. I adjusted the race as the total energy produced by the down the hill pacelines is always significantly higher than an HOl turf sprint or any turf route. My EXDC screen showed Vikkilee as a comfortable winner with Entabeni 2nd. My SP screen showed Forever My Love as the winner, which often happens when you shorten up a mile paceline - Entabeni again was 2nd. If you're betting 2 horses to win, you bet Vickilee and Entabeni. Every $4 got you $7.20, a not too shabby 80% return.