Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lsosa54 · 04-09-2010, 02:36 PM

Bill: a bit off the specific thread topic but a model can also keep you off making a bad or forced bet.

The 7th race at SAX on April 7th if I recall correctly was a short field turf mile with 2 short favorites. I wanted to see if I could beat them so I capped it. Model for the turf mile at SAX has been almost exclusively my EXDC screen the whole meet.

I threw out one horse right away ( I think it's name was Soul something or other). Trulymet was an early horse that fit the model but was 0 or 1 for a million and Van Berg rarely wins, but it looked like it could show at high odds.

I ran the other 4 contenders through EXDC/Thoromation with recent pacelines (mostly last) and ran the race adjusted and unadjusted. Looking at the EXDC screen, both favorites came up on top of the EXDC screen, one or the other in either scenario. The other 2 contenders were going off in the 4-1,9/2 range, but to me they had no shot, esp. in a short field based on the model.

So, no win bets as no price.

What about the exacta? Didn't see any value there either, putting the SP screen horses, which were tied btw, on the bottom. What if the 2 favs finsihed 1-2? You couldn't even buy a beer with the payoff. So no exacta bet.

What about the tri? I don't play them often and I did like Truly for the show, but I decided there was no value there either. It did pay $43 and it would have been a small bet (2-2-1), but I'm not losing sleep over not betting it.

So, in essence, my model kept me from forcing a bet on the SP screen, trying to beat the favorites, as they finished 1-2.

04-09-2010, 02:36 PM	#15
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Track Modeling Bill: a bit off the specific thread topic but a model can also keep you off making a bad or forced bet. The 7th race at SAX on April 7th if I recall correctly was a short field turf mile with 2 short favorites. I wanted to see if I could beat them so I capped it. Model for the turf mile at SAX has been almost exclusively my EXDC screen the whole meet. I threw out one horse right away ( I think it's name was Soul something or other). Trulymet was an early horse that fit the model but was 0 or 1 for a million and Van Berg rarely wins, but it looked like it could show at high odds. I ran the other 4 contenders through EXDC/Thoromation with recent pacelines (mostly last) and ran the race adjusted and unadjusted. Looking at the EXDC screen, both favorites came up on top of the EXDC screen, one or the other in either scenario. The other 2 contenders were going off in the 4-1,9/2 range, but to me they had no shot, esp. in a short field based on the model. So, no win bets as no price. What about the exacta? Didn't see any value there either, putting the SP screen horses, which were tied btw, on the bottom. What if the 2 favs finsihed 1-2? You couldn't even buy a beer with the payoff. So no exacta bet. What about the tri? I don't play them often and I did like Truly for the show, but I decided there was no value there either. It did pay $43 and it would have been a small bet (2-2-1), but I'm not losing sleep over not betting it. So, in essence, my model kept me from forcing a bet on the SP screen, trying to beat the favorites, as they finished 1-2.