Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun
This is an example of another exceptional front runner similiar to PEN R6 the
other night. A 6F race where the horse was at the lead at the 2nd call 9/10
times and was only a head back the other time.(see below) The win rate was iffy
and the post time odds were only 2/1...nevertheless I keyed the horse in a super with my other contenders.
These solid front runners are always a good spot play.
Ernie
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First I’d like to thank SilentRun for posting this. He correctly says that it is another example of an exceptional front runner that was similar to the PEN-race 6 that was put up by Richie. And while he also states that the horse was 1st at the second call 9 of 10 times, it was actually 7 out of 8, with the other race being 2nd by a head. He also didn’t mention that this horse was 1st at the first call 6 of 8 times with the other two being 2nd by a head. Also, as far as I am concerned, there was a very important piece of information that was missing. What was the race “type” and “conditions/restrictions”? So I decided to take a closer look.
The first thing I looked at was the chart of the race. It was interesting to note that for the first time, this horse was neither 1st OR 2nd at the first call, an unusual position for this horse. Given that this horse has NEVER, EVER made up so much as an inch of ground from the stretch call to the finish, how would the horse respond to being 3rd by 2 lengths at the first call? As it turns out, very nicely, as the horse went on to have the lead at the second call and drew off from there and winning by more than 8 lengths. Can we attribute anything to this? I think the answer is "yes”.
In this horses first start it was entered in a “maiden special weight” (MS) race. In the next start it was dropped down into a maiden claiming race for $40k. The following start found the horse entered into another maiden claiming race, but this time for $15k and it won. An old “rule of thumb” says that a horse that breaks its’ maiden in a maiden claiming race, is worth approximately “one half” of the value of that race. In this case, the horse broke its’ maiden for $15k, so it should be entered in a claiming race for winners at approximately $7,500. It seems this horses connections were following that guideline. In the next 5 races this horse was entered for $8k 4 times and $16k once, with the $16k race being clearly too high for this horse at this point in its’ career. Ok, so what?
In “today’s” race the horse is taking yet another significant drop in class. Now before anyone responds with a critical analysis of my mental capacity, I am quite aware that this race was also an $8k race, so you might be wondering where the significant drop in class comes from. If you will take notice, every race this horse has been in since it broke its’ maiden has been a race with “NO CONDITIONS/RESTRICTIONS”, in other words “OPEN” races. An “open” race is exactly what it says. ANY horse can enter as long as the owner is willing to lose the horse through the claim box for the amount it is entered for. Let me make it clear. ZENYETTA could be entered in this type of race, but the owner would risk losing the horse to anyone that is willing to pay $8,000 for her. (any takers?) Now obviously THAT is not going to happen, but the point is, “open” claiming races are generally made up of seasoned horses that are multiple winners. They could have 5,10,15, 20 or more wins each.
In today’s race for this horse, this $8k claiming race comes with a “condition/restriction” of NW2L (non-winners of two races lifetime). Every horse in THIS race has only beat a field of maidens. Two of the horses in this race were 1 for 33 and another was 1 for 17, hardly the caliber of an “open” race.
This is a significant drop in class from the races and horses this horse has been facing since it broke its’ maiden. Obviously, this horse enjoyed this drop in class so much that it was able to show a different running style. For the first time, this horse was able to sit 3rd, two lengths behind at the first call, and then do something it has never done before, gain ground from that point all the way to the finish line. Perhaps after a second look, this horse was a much better play than SilentRun first thought.
And for all you "wagercappers" out there, dismissing horses like this, without any thought whatsoever just because it is the favorite, could have a serious impact on your bottom line.