Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

porkchop · 05-20-2010, 07:03 PM

Hey guys, working on building my first track model using the export to excel feature, and thought I would ask some questions. I'm afraid this might be long, so I apologize in advance.

My first track is Belmont, and I figured this is how I would seperate my spreadsheet tabs:

Dirt 6.0f, Dirt, 6.5f, Dirt 7.0f, etc. Do the same .5f increments for Turf, along with seperate tabs that gathers all the dirt sprints together, dirt routes together, and the same for turf, so that I can get a general overall view.

What about class of race? Does anyone seperate the allowances from the stakes from the cheap claimers, etc?

As far as getting the information for the winners, I have some confusion...

I have brought the race down to 5 contenders, and the #3 BL/BL horse wins. I go through the process of exporting to excel, copying/pasting, etc. no problems there.

Lets say I get down to the 5 contenders, and my #1 BL/BL horse is the 8/5 favorite, so Doc tells me to HIDE that horse. Now I have four contenders and either the 8/5 horse wins, or another horse that I tossed out wins the race. What do I do now concerning the track model? Rework the race to find the winner and then use that information? Toss this race out?

Lastly, lets use that last example with the #1 BL/BL horse again and apply a different situation to it.

My track model is telling me that at todays track/surface/distance, 85% of the winners have been first or second in LPR and FX (just throwing out an example). In my five contenders the #4 horse is first in LPR and FX, and the #8 horse is second in LPR and FX. Bet those two to win and call it a day, easy.

However, the #4 horse is going off at 8/5 so if I HIDE him. Now aren't my results skewed? Because the #8 horse is now first in LPR and FX, and the horse that was third in those categories is now second. So in reality I'm betting on the second and third LPR and FX horses, and not the ACTUAL first and second LPR and FX horses.

Sorry if that last part is confusing, I tried to word it best I could...that is one scenario that has been running through my head.

Thanks for any help guys.

05-20-2010, 07:03 PM	#1
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	Making Track Models Hey guys, working on building my first track model using the export to excel feature, and thought I would ask some questions. I'm afraid this might be long, so I apologize in advance. My first track is Belmont, and I figured this is how I would seperate my spreadsheet tabs: Dirt 6.0f, Dirt, 6.5f, Dirt 7.0f, etc. Do the same .5f increments for Turf, along with seperate tabs that gathers all the dirt sprints together, dirt routes together, and the same for turf, so that I can get a general overall view. What about class of race? Does anyone seperate the allowances from the stakes from the cheap claimers, etc? As far as getting the information for the winners, I have some confusion... I have brought the race down to 5 contenders, and the #3 BL/BL horse wins. I go through the process of exporting to excel, copying/pasting, etc. no problems there. Lets say I get down to the 5 contenders, and my #1 BL/BL horse is the 8/5 favorite, so Doc tells me to HIDE that horse. Now I have four contenders and either the 8/5 horse wins, or another horse that I tossed out wins the race. What do I do now concerning the track model? Rework the race to find the winner and then use that information? Toss this race out? Lastly, lets use that last example with the #1 BL/BL horse again and apply a different situation to it. My track model is telling me that at todays track/surface/distance, 85% of the winners have been first or second in LPR and FX (just throwing out an example). In my five contenders the #4 horse is first in LPR and FX, and the #8 horse is second in LPR and FX. Bet those two to win and call it a day, easy. However, the #4 horse is going off at 8/5 so if I HIDE him. Now aren't my results skewed? Because the #8 horse is now first in LPR and FX, and the horse that was third in those categories is now second. So in reality I'm betting on the second and third LPR and FX horses, and not the ACTUAL first and second LPR and FX horses. Sorry if that last part is confusing, I tried to word it best I could...that is one scenario that has been running through my head. Thanks for any help guys. Last edited by porkchop; 05-20-2010 at 07:05 PM.