Quote:
Originally Posted by tizlinda
separating by gender, class and distance (btw.....are you separating distance by every possible distance or in general by sprints and routes) won't leave you with many races to profile within a given meet (or at least would take half or more of the meet to get enough to gain valuable information).
How long do you use your models for? I think I read 16 races was a good sample size, so since it could take weeks to get that do you use past meet models at the beginning of a meet with confidence?
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That's absolutely correct, but that is the price you pay for accurate information.
Not only do I model and/or profile by sex, distance (each and every distance), class and surface, but also by "condition", which is the reason I play tracks that have long meets. Tracks like Saratoga, Del Mar, Churchill Downs, Keenland and others do not lend themselves to good model and profile building since they have short meets.
I do not believe in picking up a model from the last meet which ended months ago and play from that at the beginning of a new meet. You can keep it in mind as a possible guide, but a new meet could generate new profiles and models.
I have always found that results have a direct correlation to the amount of work one is willing to put into it.