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Old 05-24-2010, 12:32 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,258
Ernie,

I also think it important to identify to what extent top 4 Tx (Tote Xray on the RDSS Tote Browser screen) is different from top 4 Odds. If there's a very high co-relation, then there's not much extra information being conveyed by the Tote Xray readout. Not sure about the long-term stats, but Top 4 Win Odds must account for a very high percentage of all winners and place horses anyway.

However, when you find significant differences between Odds ranks and Tx ranks, you may have some good additional info; for example, odds-on favourite with NOT the corresponding best Tx, or odds < 2-1 but Tx on 2nd or 3rd Odds horses are very close to (or better than) the favourite; or lightly raced, first timer, long layoff or foreign horse - here the Tx may show bettor confidence which the Win Odds alone might not show as clearly.

A great scenario is a horse with somewhat inscrutable PPs to analyse, held at middling odds (e.g. 4-1 - 8-1), ranked within the top 4 Win Odds and also ranked Top 2 or 3 on Tote Xray. It's a wake up call to be sure to include this horse somewhere in a betting scenario, or another excuse to downgrade a low paying favourite in the same race, especially if there's any other evidence of weakness on the part of that favourite (tied in BL/BL or VDC with another, unfavourable Matchup scenario, fitness doubts, etc).

In otherwords, as you said succinctly Ernie, as another supplementary factor, another piece of the puzzle and not a black box...yet.

Thanks for your focus on, and sharing of this new item in our arsenal, and hope you're collecting well for your efforts!

Ted
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