Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
Hi FTL
Attachment 20809
My feeling is I agree with what Doc wrote in follow up #81
As I wrote before please look at the shaded area
Doc writes that once a horse is off over 30 days
the amount of time of the layoff becomes more unimportant
I agree with this . That is my opinion I was asked how i felt about the subject and my usual response to anything regarding the methodology is within the pages of the Follow Ups and manuals
I will always feel this way I have been blessed eith an ability to do rather well
and I feel that I earned this ability by taking information from the writings of Howard Sartin and Pirco
Its my goal and Its a promise to Howard that I would be his VDC Messenger
meaning I would keep his ideas and writings avaiable to users of his methodology
When you ask me how I feel or to do research I will always go with what Doc
wrote. I used this follow up screen shot to show the readers if they are interested where my ideas come from
Thank You
Bill Varone |
Bill,
Respectfully, citing someone else's work in an answer to a proposition under discussion (Layoffs, FTS), as you did with the Follow Up excerpt of Doc's - is not the same thing as 'research', at least not the same as digging into a collection of data (either an electronic database or a collection of DRFs as they did in the old days) to prove, disprove or qualify a point. Not minimizing the 'research' you did to search through the FU issues to find a relevant opinion once held by Doc - which may or may not be currently valid, or as valid now as then - just that it strikes me FTL may have been referring to 'research' with some hard, current and of long duration numbers behind it (re hit rate, or average mutuels of FTS winners). He does seem to have provided that info for Layoff horses.
I accept that you trust and believe and are a messenger for what Doc has written on various subjects - but Doc himself (sometimes) changed his opinion on things he once wrote, changing with the times or sometimes with newly provided information. I also believe a lot of what Doc and others wrote, but usually only until I can prove or disprove it for myself. I once jokingly asked him if he would reimburse me for losing bets I made based on implementing my understanding of what he wrote in the Follow Up. He laughed and declined
(i.e. it's up to me...)
And for whatever it's worth, it occurs to me that one difference between Layoff horses and FTS is that the population of the former would likely be much older than that of the latter, FTS probably tending to have a much higher percentage of 2 YO than the entire population of Layoff horses FTL cited. For FTS, all you have is workout patterns (and opinions about breeding and trainers, etc), while with Layoff horses who have run before, you have their previous ability and previous form cycle info, as well as their laid-off time frame to use as a factor when identifying them as Win contenders or not, today.
FWIW.
Ted