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Ken Massa on the longer ROI of longer layoffs
Just wanted to add that the most relevant factor to be derived from any set of stats is ROI. Ken Massa, formerly the partner of Tom Brohamer, has presented detailed stats on the IVs and ROI of layoff horses broken down by distance, which appears under the title 'The Lowdown on Layoffs' in the May 2007 issue of his newsletter.
Not to go into too much detail, Ken found some surprisingly counterintuitive and cliche-busting results. One is that a quick (within 7 days) return, a key positive factor for many, has huge negative ROI. Another is that horse returning from longer layoffs - in the range of 66-166 days - had the highest ROI of any group tested, with a striking difference, perhaps predictable, in the way this benefitted routers more than sprinters. I suggest anyone interested in this subject take a look at his site.
Just one last for for FTL - I think it's perhaps misleading to lump all horses over 99 days together in the way you have. Obviously this group would include horses that have been off for years. I think it would be worth breaking out the group between 90 and 120 days, from which I and I think others have hit many longshots, as having a higher percentage hit rate and ROI than you suggest.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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