Wilbur,
Firstly - welcome to PaceandCap, and to your evaluation pf RDSS - and great first post, thank you! Next, I must say that you have done something right off the bat which a majority of folks have difficulty with - and that is expressing your anxiety and concerns with your initial success/failure
in public (though I see why you chose this Topic to post in).
I would say one of the most difficult things to do is to be
self-critical, let alone exposing oneself to potential criticism (even constructive criticism) from others. But the fact that you have done just this - beginning with expressing your doubts and frustration, then opening up to examining your records, seeing what you actually accomplished, checking your commitment to your work (you got the time wrong on a race, etc) - speaks volumes to me about what your mindset is. And that mindset is: someone who has a strong desire and a commitment to find out what a toolset can do, AND to work on yourself to achieve a goal. (I also am aware of how you have chosen to not just tip your toe in these waters, but have jumped in with both feet, so congratulations on intention).
My reading of your post is that you don't necessarily want everything handed to you on a plate up front, and
are willing to work. Good - that's the
ONLY way it will work. This game will challenge you to understand a central truth of things -
that there is no 'other guy' - you are responsible,
for everything! The software is a calculator, an assistant bookkeeper or idiot savant in a box, if you will - blithely (and uncaringly) willing to be accepted or rejected by you. The software told me that Blame (and several other horses) looked better than Zenyatta in the BC Classic. Several folks cashed nice tickets on Blame and the Blame/Zenyatta exacta by heeding the readouts. It is MY responsibility for having chosen (and touted!) Zenyatta to win - largely for sentimental reasons (and for knowing her huge 3rd fraction, stretch run ability and reserves). Result: they won, I lost. No one to Blame
but me (and I also get the credit for the other winners I did have last weekend - me and my tools).
I believe you (and everyone who does it) is on the right path if you record every single wager decision you make (bet, pass, 2-horses, single horse, win pool, other pools) along with initially a small handful of composite factor rankings of your bet candidates: BL/BL tier, VDC, Total Energy and the Class Rating (CR), especially at the middle to upper class tracks. If you're doing this on paper, figure out what your Hit Rate% is and ROI and thus what net odds from 2 horse (or single horse, when possible) must be to break even. This helps you know what betting situations you must pass on due to too low odds.
But above all, never stop the self-examination process. When you do, you implicitly start believing that someone else is more responsible for your success than you are, and when you deeply believe that, you will not succeed - at horse-racing and probably not at anything else either.
I love the expression: '
you have what you want', which is another way of saying if you keep doing what you're doing, you'll keep getting what you got. To achieve something
different, you have to step outside current comfort zones and use your mental and emotional skills in a different way, and maybe also use different tools, OR, use your tools differently. RDSS is
not Phase III of the Sartin Methodology: though it evolved from the Brohamer era, and the Energy era. Phase III still works fine, but lots of others now see what it sees, and you have to be a lot more accurate than before to stay even, let alone profitable.
Finally, though RDSS as a tool works well in the hands of someone who takes time to learn and accept what it offers, having a mentor will shortcut the process to learning alone and only listening to one's own advice! I have made this suggestion and offer to everyone, though few seem to have taken it up: don't just brood over a losing cycle of races - first, r
eview them in detail, looking for consistently applied choices which would have resulted in even one, maybe two more hits per 20 race session, or per card of races. Then,
post on this bulletin board the series of races you are studying, starting with simply the race identities and your choices, won, lost or passed and net result. Then simply ask a few leading questions: what analysis could I have done differently in this race , how could I have made a better wager decision in that race. (Learning how to post screenshots speeds up the feedback and learning process).
While it's true, we are all in competition with each other for the winner's slice of the mutuel pool, some of us also have a strong desire to share, to teach and to grow the game by introducing its glories, its potential profits and its opportunities for self-knowledge to those who are interested.
You sure seem like you're on the right path - may I encourage you to keep it up, focus, expect to take some time, ask for help, share you process like you've done so far.
All the best,
Ted
P.S. As for my mother being a '
plant' - well if that's true, she planted herself and now I can't get rid of her
. Plus, she only does what I tell her part of the time anyway
