Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP
If anyone can help me:
I am tracking an exacta method (multiple tracks, no models, profiles, no NYRA or Socal etc just the individual race at hand) using 2 bets per race. To give an idea of the volume in the last 5 days I have bet 108 races (216 wagers) and have connected 18 times with the ROI very positive.
My question is are there any players (profitable only please!) playing this way who could give me an idea of an expected hit rate. because it involves exactas and not just the winner do I need like hundreds and hundreds of races before the result becomes "meaningful"? 2 exacta bets per race, no more no less.
Also (for rebate players  ) is it true that exacta wagers enable one to get a bigger rebate than those who play W/P/S? Any feedback (can be done via PM if need be) on a good rebate shop if I were to put say $1,500 a week (to start) through their windows ALL exacta play?
Thanks in advance for any and all help with my questions
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Hi Richie,
Congratulations on your results. The only comment I have, which your question already suggests, is that a larger sample size would confirm that you're really onto something. William Benter, who did pretty well, has said that the results of his model stabilized after about 2k races, and others have suggested a similar range - 1500-3000 - as being valid for handicapping models. If you know anything about the Law of Large Numbers - the larger the sample size, the more likely the results converge at reality - it applies to handicapping as it does to any other form of gambling.
BTW, if your handicapping model is meant for universal application - at any track, rather than certain specific tracks, it would benefit you to include samples from as wide a range as possible.
I see you've also posted this on PA. I'm sure you'll get some useful answers there.
Best of luck.
Cheers,
B. Jennet