Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead
I have to disagree with you on one point.
In 2001 the percentage of winners at odds greater than 6/1 was 20%.
In 2010 the percentage of winners at odds greater than 6/1 was still 20%.
I don't dispute Dave's findings. I have the same findings. When you accumulate the kind of volume that both Dave and I have, conclusions will match. My point is that this downward trend exist in odds less that 4/1. This doesn't disturb me at all since I'm not involved with these horses anyway.
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Hi FTL,
Historically, horses have won at close to their odds. You may have been misreading your charts, but there was no time when horses at odds > 6-1 ever won at a rate even approaching 20%.
Take a look at Dave's 2010 8-horse field chart, which is about average size and roughly representative. Horses at all odds > 6-1, won approximately 4.3% of their races. Even starters at exactly 6-1, which historically have won about 14% of their races, in 2010 won 11.9%. It just confirms what Dave was saying more informally on the phone - there are dramatically fewer winners at high odds compared with the past, not just the odds range below 4-1.
Cheers,
B Jennet