Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead
Why don't I think it will hold up? Well, the next time a track runs a full meet and ends up with a winning favorite percentage of 50%.....will be the FIRST time!
Do the favorites that win fit my models? Gee, I hope so for the sake of my models. Why wouldn't they fit? Just because they are favorites? Many times I find the favorite is a PREFECT MATCH to my model, but that doesn't mean I'm playing them. In fact, it's a good reason NOT to play them, since that is just further evidence that they are the correct horse and likely winner. So this a perfect "PASS RACE". I'm not looking for "action", I'm looking for "value" and with patience I will find that same perfect match at odds of 4/1 or higher.
Are the bettors smarter there? Meaning at Penn National as compared to some other track? That doesn't exist any longer as a result of simulcasting. With simulcasting money comes into the pool at all tracks from all over the country, so it is impossible to determine which track has the most intelligent bettors. In the old days, before simulcasting, the word was New York had the most intelligent bettors. IMAGINE THAT!!! lol
The quality of horses doesn't matter. History shows that be it Santa Anita or Charles Town, favorites win at the rate of about 33%.
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I'm from New York and I'm still working like a dog
I'm sure its true that the 50% wont hold up because as the year unfolds most tracks start getting the horses and races that cause chaos like maidens , turf races, 2yo's in abundance which will even things out.
So I can see it being slow for you at Penn now but as time goes on it will even out for you too. What you must have that most people here don't is....
PATIENCE ....to wait for those plays.
thxs
mike