[Bill Lyster]

Further analysis:

1 - Has been running close to front recently and won early in slow fractions after winning as a sustained horse against a little faster fractions. All races are at CT which makes it hard to compare to Mnr, but we can look at other horses races at CT for comparison. This horse will have to press or be sustained in this field. By far the best CT horse if you compare 6f part of routes in last three. this comparison would eliminate the 4 - 6 - 9.

2 - 3 - 5 all have shown early tendencies. If you compare the 3 and 5 off their Beulah times I think the 5 is the key horse in this race. The 3 HAS TO HAVE THE LEAD at the first call and best is 22.2 45.3. The 5 could push the 3 at the first call from the sloppy last race at Beulah, which might not be repeated, but probably forces the 3 into uncomfortable territory. So I think the first fraction is less than 22.2 and closer to 22.0. the 5 has run 22.4 twice at Mnr and the 3 could not win at Mnr with a 2 length lead in 22.5. The 2 has pressed 22.2 back by a length at Mnr, but won in a slow 111.7. The 9 is also an early horse but cant compete at these early fractions, so all of these guys are OUT.

With this early competition I think the pace is 22.0 46.0 or perhaps a touch faster. So I think that the winner runs from 4th-6th in the early going.


That leaves 1 - 7 - 8 - 10
With the running line info I would normally be scared of the 7 who has pressed a 22.1 - 45.7 from his second line. BUT this horse has not been on the track for 57 DAYS, no works, nada, zip. I think he will close but not be good enough to win. Off his second line 105.3/111.7 for 5.5 and 6 furlongs

The 8 has won from 3rd, 4th and even placed from 6th at the first call in half mile times near 46. Its last race at this distance, line 1, was 104.9 while pressing from 2nd. So far the best I have seen.

The 10 has had 10 races in 230 days with one 37 day gap between 3 and 4 back. Not bad for this type of horse. Has always done well at this distance pressing slower paces. Won as an SP in line 8 vs 46.7 at Mnr in 107! The only other horse with TP line is the 7 and the 10 is much faster. the predominant style is presser, but at todays 46 pace he has acted more like an early horse. Could be on the board, but NTW for me.

1 horse: 23.0 - 47.0 - 112.7 while on the lead; does not need lead, so he is probably 4-5 back at each call with a nice turn time of 24 or less

8 horse: 22.6 - 46.0 - 58.4 - 104.9/(111.3 - 111.4); last two turn times are 23.4 and 23.9 so this horse will be ready to go when the leaders get tired.

I really don't have a clue about the conversion between CT and Mnr or know how horses translate between the two parks. I would favor the Mnr horse whose raw SRs are 89-88-81-75 vs 81-80-94-90 for the 1 but I note that the 1 was claimed for 8000 and this is 2nd time at 5000 level. the 8 should run closer to the pace than the 1 so if I had to have a first choice it would be the 8

Odds:

1 horse 8:1
8 horse 9/2, at these prices, I like them both!

Good luck,


Bill