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Running Styles / Projected Pace:
There are multiple horses who figure in the early mix today. #3 and #5 either need to be on the lead or fighting for it in order to win. They both come from Beu races with fast 1C’s. Both have Mnr races as well. Based on those races I’m projecting a 22.2 or 22.3 (fifths) pace today.
Early or OTE:
I don’t think either will be able to win a duel and win this race. I’m looking for a horse that can run well from 3rd position or further back against a 22.2 or 22.3 1C and win this race OTE.
Match Up:
1- Has won or done well wtw, or from 2nd or 3rd position as well as from 7th. I think CT is a slow track but I can’t take this horse off those times…OUT
2- Has won from 1st 2nd and 5th. Last out, won against a 22.1 1C. Two other wins vs a 22.2 1C…Contender
4- OTE runner coming off a nice win at CT. Nice races from 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th
position. The power line is line 9…Contender
6- Has won from 2nd and 4th position. That was long ago and more
recent races vs 22-and-change have not been so good. OUT
7- Won last race fighting all the way. Going back for a power line
the best I find is line 3…Contender
8- Pressed the pace last out against a mid 22 1C. I used line 2 as the power
line…Contender
9- Last two races are ugly, I can’t go back past them…OUT
I’m left with these, fractions in tenths:
#2 22.2 45.8 58.6 111.7 2-1 1-hd 1-hd 1-1.8
#4 22.5 45.7 57.9 110.6 3-1.5 2-hd 1-hd 1-1.8
#7 22.4 46.2 59.3 112.4 3-2.1 3-3 2-1 1-3
#8 22.4 46.6 59.8 113.5 3-2.1 3-.6 1-3 1-5
#2 and #4 separate themselves from the pack, and between the two I will take #4 to win the race.
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