Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
The double red horse (RR), the horse with the best early position numbers, is only considered dominant if the percentage exceeds 62%.
I have worked 363 races so far with the worst result for the RR horse being at Mnr where 36 out of 48 placed out of the top three places.
Overall, 205 out of 363 (56.5%) have finished out of the money. So far I have not done any summary by % age to see where there might be a break or dent for the ITM finishes.
The distribution so far is 59 first, 59 second, 38 third, 34 fourth and 171 other
That it for now...
Bill
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By contrast, I keep records of the best (fastest) first fraction horse in every race, i.e.- the "best early" horse in each race. At MNR so far this year there have been 89 winners from 339 races or a win percentage of 27%. The return for these winners (as of 4.17.11) is $2.12. I think Dave Schwartz referred to this number as a "dollar net". I just call it by its' old fashion name, ROI (return on investment).
Based on this information I would say the "new pace" system is not identifying the best early horse in each race.
Also, I must say that in all of my research, there is
no single stat that achieves an ROI of $2.00 (or break even) on its' own. In other words, to this point in the MNR meet, the best early horses are doing much better than could normally be expected, therefore, early speed at MNR is not only winning better than its' fair share of races, but is returning a profit as well.