Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Tentative Derby EL 2.0 Contenders, plus Reasoning

Ted Craven · 05-06-2011, 10:35 AM

OK, here's my reworking of the Derby using only EL 2.0

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The reasoning for Comma to the Top as 2nd Early contender is that all Early horses are separated by only 1 SR point in the Hi column, and 1 point is not enough to separate. MMM with 102 is first among equals. To separate ties, in the follow up workshop video, Dave suggested that as an alternative to (or instead of?) Jockey % he began to use lifetime high SR. So Comma to the Top's lifetime high SR (TrackMaster SR) is 105, last race, same as MMM (though 2nd back). And this 105 bests Pants on Fire's 103, also last race. So Comma wins the tie breaker and is the second E horse.

This is setting aside that from my normal handicapping approach for the Derby, I would not even use those horses (earlies or lates) who did not win or finish 2nd very close up in G1 or G2 events in 2011. This basic contender filter has not let me down in 10+ years.

Thoughts?

Ted

05-06-2011, 10:35 AM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	OK, here's my reworking of the Derby using only EL 2.0 The reasoning for Comma to the Top as 2nd Early contender is that all Early horses are separated by only 1 SR point in the Hi column, and 1 point is not enough to separate. MMM with 102 is first among equals. To separate ties, in the follow up workshop video, Dave suggested that as an alternative to (or instead of?) Jockey % he began to use lifetime high SR. So Comma to the Top's lifetime high SR (TrackMaster SR) is 105, last race, same as MMM (though 2nd back). And this 105 bests Pants on Fire's 103, also last race. So Comma wins the tie breaker and is the second E horse. This is setting aside that from my normal handicapping approach for the Derby, I would not even use those horses (earlies or lates) who did not win or finish 2nd very close up in G1 or G2 events in 2011. This basic contender filter has not let me down in 10+ years. Thoughts? Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2011 at 10:37 AM.