Dave, before analysing your workup further, how do you assign any ES points to Master of Hounds, given no upclose in his only North American race, and no position info in any other races? His presence in your Early group, affects the horses below him, and your subsequent query about dual Swing horses, I think?
Aside from that, I follow your analysis. We're using 2 different sets of self-coherent Speed Ratings (TrackMaster and HDW). Given that, could you comment on my reasoning in my earlier post above for choosing Comma to the Top versus Pants on Fire as one of the Early horses (i.e. tie break rules when Hi SR within 1 point). That is, what approach would you follow faced with an analogous situation using HDW supplied SR?
Cheers,
Ted