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Dave, before analysing your workup further, how do you assign any ES points to Master of Hounds, given no upclose in his only North American race, and no position info in any other races? His presence in your Early group, affects the horses below him, and your subsequent query about dual Swing horses, I think?
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I am so used to our software handling some things automatically, that I just forget about it sometimes.
First, he has zero for ES Points. Since ES Points are not part of this calculation we'll leave that to a future discussion.
The real question is, "How did we determine his other attributes?" Essentially, I studied foreign horses in their next few races in the U.S. and determined that there was a good way to relate finishes to "likely" pace impact.
The approach I settled upon was to treat the past races as if he stalked or forced the pace based upon distance of the race coming from and the distance of today's race. In other words, a horse that has been sprinting (like Hounds) is more likely to run early in a race of this length than in a race of shorter distance. That is simply logical.
However, the C1 factor takes most of this back because we actually have no proof that the he DID run this way. Considering that the C1 number is a zero, I would expect this horse to actually run somewhat earlier than his "pct" indicates. It is a big leap from "no data" to being able to say this, but that has been my experience.
When you have a true question mark horse in a race, you cannot simply pretend he isn't there. Well, there are some methods for doing that relative to the tote board - I do it all the time with FTS - but it is very difficult when asked questions like, "How will the question mark horse run?"
A logical assumption, since so many winners go to the front, is to assume that IF HE WINS, he will do it at least somewhat early.
Besides, what are the alternatives? To give him all zeros would be to assume that he will be an absolute late closer, which is no more accurate and probably farther from reality.