Quote:
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Aside from that, I follow your analysis. We're using 2 different sets of self-coherent Speed Ratings (TrackMaster and HDW). Given that, could you comment on my reasoning in my earlier post above for choosing Comma to the Top versus Pants on Fire as one of the Early horses (i.e. tie break rules when Hi SR within 1 point). That is, what approach would you follow faced with an analogous situation using HDW supplied SR?
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Actually, I am not using HDW speed ratings. I am using my own par-based numbers.
The HDW ratings are far superior to my numbers for gathering winners. The top horse for last race speed rating - what we call "BL1" - wins around 29% of the time. My par-based numbers are down around 25%.
However, my numbers return MUCH MORE MONEY in the upper rankings! So, I use them instead.
On to your question.
As I read your previous post, you go into a long explanation about PoR (Pace of Race). The purpose of PoR is to eliminate horses that cannot keep up with a potentially fast pace. However, from a practical sense, it is only used IF WE HAVE A DOMINANT FRONT RUNNER!
Therefore, in a race such as this, you have no need to even LOOK at the PoR. That is why I did not display my RegSpeedLow ratings on the form!
Yes, PoR is used to eliminate horses that do not qualify on SpeedHigh, but in the end, we're going to simply take the two highest (plus ties) anyway so we might as well just move to that column right away.
Thus, in your calculation (as I see it) you wind up with the following:
Code:
EARLY
18 Mo 123
13 Mucho Macho Man 102
7 Pants on Fire 101
6 Comma on Top 100
17 Soldat 100
5 Decisive Moment 99
14 Shackleford 97
In this scenario, you clearly have:
18-??? tie break between 13 & 7.
(Hmmm... Code does not line up. Can you point me to how to fix?)