Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
As I read your previous post, you go into a long explanation about PoR (Pace of Race). The purpose of PoR is to eliminate horses that cannot keep up with a potentially fast pace. However, from a practical sense, it is only used IF WE HAVE A DOMINANT FRONT RUNNER!
Therefore, in a race such as this, you have no need to even LOOK at the PoR. That is why I did not display my RegSpeedLow ratings on the form!
Yes, PoR is used to eliminate horses that do not qualify on SpeedHigh, but in the end, we're going to simply take the two highest (plus ties) anyway so we might as well just move to that column right away.
Thus, in your calculation (as I see it) you wind up with the following:
Code:
EARLY
18 Mo 123 SCRATCHED
-------------------------------------------------
13 Mucho Macho Man 102 - 105
7 Pants on Fire 101 - 103
6 Comma on Top 100 - 105
17 Soldat 100 - 112
5 Decisive Moment 99 - 102
14 Shackleford 97 - 97
In this scenario, you clearly have:
18-??? tie break between 13 & 7.
(Hmmm... Code does not line up. Can you point me to how to fix? - not sure myself - let me work on that... ) |
Thanks Dave, setting aside your discussion of use of POR for a subsequent time, your chart and comments re
tie-breaking were
actually the meat of my question.
Uncle Mo is scratched. So we're picking between the next 5 horses separated by only 1 SR point. You have suggested (initial video) to break ties on Jockey %. You have also suggested (followup video session - an improvement?) to break ties on highest lifetime SR. I'm sure either way will get you success some of the time, but for consistency - using lifetime SR - do I understand:
(referring to your code table above - I added a second set of
bolded numbers showing each horse's
lifetime hi SR)
1. comparing #13 to #7 - #13 survives (105 vs 103)
2. comparing #6 to #7 - #6 survives
3. comparing #6 to #17 - #17 survives
Therefore the 2 Earlies would be #13 MMM and #17 Soldat
In your view, is that comparison logic consistent? (I agree, it is different to what I came up with initially). This is not so much to determine Derby contenders (though that's interesting) as to be in synch with your thoughts on best practices applying NewPace.
Thanks!
Ted