Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun
Ted,
I hand caluclated the race and I came up with the same EE - LL but I have differences for rrSe for the # 4 and # 8 horses as follows:
For the # 4 horse:
From RDSS original the horse was within 1 length of the first call:
4/29/11, 1/14/11, 7/28/10, 5/7/10 and 3/10/10....5 x's = 50
E/L 2.0 shows 60.
For the 8 horse he was only within 1 length of the first call on 12 sept 10
therefore he should receive a 10. E/L 2.0 shows 20.
In using Dave's New Pace Developments to modify the EE - LL horses.
My interpretation is: There is no dominant horse that has a 58% over the 2nd horse and the #5 horse does not have at least a 25% edge himself then:
There is no need of a POR. So according to the New Pace Developments there
is 0 (zero) early horses.
Therefore my interpretation for 3. SPEED RATINGS FOR EARLY are now based on RegSpeedHigh The 2 and 1 are tied for speedreqhigh.
I am using my own method to break ties and going with the 2 because:
a) The 2 ranks higher early than the 1.
b) The 2 was up close in its last race finishing 2nd whereby the 1 was off 55 days.
c) And RDSS ranks the 2 as BL/BL =1
So my EE - LL are: 2,10 - 3, 6
Ernie
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Ernie,
Horse #4 was also beaten .7 lengths on 12 Nov (though position 4). Horse #8 was also beaten .9 lengths on 12 Nov (though position 6) -same race, actually. Don't forget to count these as well, even though not top 3 positions.
Your tie breaking method seems valid enough if you apply it consistently. RDSS came up with the #1 only because program #1 comes before program #2 (not a very good tie breaking system!) I looked at it to see if I should change to the #2 (both having the same 76 Hi SR) and decided to leave it with the #1 because the #1 had better recent Total Energy #s than the #2 and against faster paces of race than the #2.
This last logic is subjective on my part (so far) but I made it in searching for the 'best intrinsic rating' of the 2 horses, which is apparently what you did as well - only you came up with the other horse! No worries.
Hope that helps!
Ted