Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5
Just wondering lead if your choice in the peter pan was the # 6 Alternation? Seemed like he had all your parameters. Seemed like the race set up for him
Bob
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As was the case with the Derby and the turf race I posted about, I did not bet nor handicap the Peter Pan. I only posted about those two races to provide another point of view in the matching of those fields. Therefore, in answer to your question, no, the winner was not “my choice” as I did not even look at the race. Here is the way I would have looked at the race. Since there are just 10 horses, I will list the top 4 and bottom 4.
Top 4 by position at first call (in order):
Bold
Adios
Joe
Prime
BOTTOM 4 by position at first call (in order):
Monz
Alter
News
Beer
The remaining horses are in between these two groups.
Now the TOP 5 based on first fraction times (in order): (this is the group from which 75% of all winners are found)
Joe
Prime
Alter
Bold
Adios
As you can see, the TOP 5 first fraction horses based on times are the same as the TOP 4 first call position horses, with the exception of ALTER, who ranks 3rd in this category. This shows that although ALTER ranks in the BOTTOM 4 based on first call position, the horse is capable of running against the fastest first call fractions put up by the horses in this field, with the benefit of being able to close on those fractions. This makes ALTER a very solid contender in a
very poor field for a Grade II race.