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Hi Mike,
I threw that out there as a general rule of thumb. In general it works.
Of course using your head and handicapping will improve your results. You obviously know how to handicap.
In your specific example the last race may have been a "workout within a race," but that's a little advanced and not quite relevant to the thread.
Also, you didn't mention that class level of the competition he's facing today. That would be another factor to consider. And knowing what the trainer has done historically in that situation couldn't hurt either, as I'm sure you're well aware.
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