Wow, seems like it has been raining everywhere on the continent these past weeks. Good work at Delaware, though I guess you could have stayed home for that ...
You say you are betting races you probably should pass - can you give a couple of examples of specific races (date, track, race #) and why you think you should have passed? Aside from the obvious (e.g. maiden races with many FTS, young horses FT turf, several low bet horses all ranked will by software) whether you bet a race can often depend on whether you can find any discrepancy between your analysis and the crowds, regardless of how chaotic or opaque a race looks. This often a comfort level you can develop (i.e. comfort for the unknown). The more the chaos, the higher the mutuels, often, and depending how you bet these, you may win a minority but at a high enough average mutuel to make it sustainable.
Re betting Exactas, despite erudite advice to the contrary (sometimes), there's no shame in betting a 3 horse box if the mutuels on your top 3 ranked BL permit. Also, be aware of the notion of '
counter-energy'. This is an energy distribution for a horse which is counter or opposite to the rest of the field. Use the TPR+EL screen for this. For example, in a route race, E/L Diff will typically be Late (blue). If you see a horse with an Early distribution (Red) or one with the
least Late, that horses is counter to the rest, and may represent a lone early in a route race, or lone (or best) closer in a field with a number of earlies.
Such a horse may or may not win, but should be investigated further for inclusion in an Exacta.
A 2nd opportunity is a horse on the Segments screen who has
double red in the first 2 calls of the Computed Beaten Lengths section (the left half of the screen), or at least one red and one green (i.e. a 1st and 2nd). Such a horse may be able to dominate the first 2 calls. If it has low Total Energy, it may rank low on the BL screen, but again should not be overlooked to finish in-the-money (or win, if it is unchallenged by any other positionally early horses). At longer odds, such a horse may belong in your Exacta.
A 3rd opportunity for inclusion in your Exacta bets comes from what we have affectionately come to call the '
Binder Improver' (for Bill V, aka Binder). This is a ranking for a horse in the
VDC column (BL screen) where the VDC rank is 1st or 2nd, but that rank appears further down the sort, for example in 4th position, since the screen is sorted by BL rank (which tends to co-relate with Total Energy). Since the VDC rank is composed partly of the BL rank and partly of the intrinsic VDC formula, when VDC is 'out of order' compared to BL this is due to a strong VDC component (i.e. lower deceleration relative to velocity) and is often co-related to strong 3rd fraction performance, strong TS+F3 (see Segments screen) and often a good Deceleration number (Velocity screen). When you find such a Binder Improver, study it further. They do not win their fair share, but since they rank lower in Total Energy (and often at higher odds) their inclusion in an Exacta bet in second position can result in some very good payouts.
Finally, find the Manual named '
The 55% Solution - Exacta/Quinella Profits - Finding the Place Horse' in the Sartin Library, Manuals Section. The title says it all!
Looking forward to analysing a few of your 'non-playable' races, if you care to. We might learn something.
So, are you saying I should stick to playing Mountaineer from the comfort of my home
?
Ted