Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath
I currently get 85%+ winners in my final 5 contenders using best of last 3 comparable adj. speed ratings.
My problem is that I am getting too many 3.00 to 6.00 winners.
I am aware that I am not the only one with this problem, but not sure what the solution is ,since even in these low price wins one or both of my other top 3 VDC horses goes off at 4/1 or higher.
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I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is no solution as long as you treat every race like it is no different than the race before. The only thing one race has in common with the other is, one of the horses is going to win. Perhaps two in the case of a dead heat.
Some things never change. As an example, favorites win at about 33% year in and year, out on average. Maybe one year will be a point higher and another year a point lower. Horses that pay under $9.00 win about 62% of all races. No matter whose system you are using, no matter what software you are using, that is going to remain the same. "HANDICAPPING" makes the difference. There is no "black box". "Doc" use to say that 90% of your handicapping should be done BEFORE you turn on the computer. "Doc" also said to forget "horsey" stuff. Now I ask you, did "Doc" ever define "horsey stuff"? If you read through the follow ups, I think you will find sections where "Doc" goes over line selection. I think if you pay attention to what "Doc" says there, you will find that he IS handicapping. Brohamer didn't treat every race like it was the same as the last race. That's how he created what we know as the "Brohamer Model". Every race is a race unto itself. There has never been another like it and there never will be another like it. You can't handicap a Grade I race like a $5,000 claiming NW2L race or the other way around. If you just blindly play every race and choose not to play short priced horses, you can EXPECT to lose a lot of races. Now, if you choose to do some handicapping and be more selective in the races you play, then you have a chance to show a profit. Me? I'm going to choose to stop here, although I could go on and on.