Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - WOX 07-06-11 Race (4)

Ted Craven · 07-06-2011, 01:38 PM

Bill,

The upcoming EL 2.0 module in RDSS 2.0 is my implementation of all Dave's rules from his NewPace video (and subsequent amendments by him). With the exception that we are using Speed Rating data supplied by TrackMaster (Equibase) and also familiar Ratings calculated internally by RDSS (Total Energy, Adjusted Speed Rating, Perceptor Total) - the rules used are as faithful to his product as I can make it and any errors (so far) are mine.

As such, it does indeed use a method of automatically identifying a statistically sound range of "Speed" ability. It is a semantic quibble whether or not it 'selects pacelines', but it does consider the horse's entire Past Performance. It doesn't use other aspects of any of Dave Schwartz other software, impact values, etc - it is stand alone.

There's got to be pushing a hundred races published here using this method. Richie P compiled a short (profitable) study from Evangeline using EL 2.0, and though no one has published a larger (multi-hundred) statistical study I can refer to, anecdotally the contender selection seems to be fairly sound. Users will be the judge. I believe Bill Lyster intends to conduct just such a larger study when the upgrade to EL 2.0 I am working on is ready for Beta testing Round 1, later this month.

EL 2.0 (NewPace) is just a small part of RDSS 2.0 - and it requires a related betting strategy to take best advantage of it (outlined in Dave's video and also in his subsequent Basics of Winning video series). In my opinion, it becomes most useful in exotic vertical wagers - less so for Win. You do need to license NewPace from Dave in order to use it in RDSS2, but I thought that many NewPace users would appreciate having a software implementation of it other than Dave's HSH product, and simultaneously get the opportunity to discover the strengths of the modern Sartin Methodology. Calculating the NewPace numbers and ranks by hand (or entering them manually to a spreadsheet) will get old very fast!

Aside from NewPace, RDSS 2.0 will have several automated Paceline Selection Strategies, as well as the means to 'roll your own'. Being bold, yet consistent in paceline selection is what sometimes gets you onto horses the crowd does not like, which is our only hope for long-term profit.

cheers,

Ted

07-06-2011, 01:38 PM	#9
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	Bill, The upcoming EL 2.0 module in RDSS 2.0 is my implementation of all Dave's rules from his NewPace video (and subsequent amendments by him). With the exception that we are using Speed Rating data supplied by TrackMaster (Equibase) and also familiar Ratings calculated internally by RDSS (Total Energy, Adjusted Speed Rating, Perceptor Total) - the rules used are as faithful to his product as I can make it and any errors (so far) are mine. As such, it does indeed use a method of automatically identifying a statistically sound range of "Speed" ability. It is a semantic quibble whether or not it 'selects pacelines', but it does consider the horse's entire Past Performance. It doesn't use other aspects of any of Dave Schwartz other software, impact values, etc - it is stand alone. There's got to be pushing a hundred races published here using this method. Richie P compiled a short (profitable) study from Evangeline using EL 2.0, and though no one has published a larger (multi-hundred) statistical study I can refer to, anecdotally the contender selection seems to be fairly sound. Users will be the judge. I believe Bill Lyster intends to conduct just such a larger study when the upgrade to EL 2.0 I am working on is ready for Beta testing Round 1, later this month. EL 2.0 (NewPace) is just a small part of RDSS 2.0 - and it requires a related betting strategy to take best advantage of it (outlined in Dave's video and also in his subsequent Basics of Winning video series). In my opinion, it becomes most useful in exotic vertical wagers - less so for Win. You do need to license NewPace from Dave in order to use it in RDSS2, but I thought that many NewPace users would appreciate having a software implementation of it other than Dave's HSH product, and simultaneously get the opportunity to discover the strengths of the modern Sartin Methodology. Calculating the NewPace numbers and ranks by hand (or entering them manually to a spreadsheet) will get old very fast! Aside from NewPace, RDSS 2.0 will have several automated Paceline Selection Strategies, as well as the means to 'roll your own'. Being bold, yet consistent in paceline selection is what sometimes gets you onto horses the crowd does not like, which is our only hope for long-term profit. cheers, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-06-2011 at 01:41 PM.