Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

tfm · 07-10-2011, 01:46 PM

Two points: The 1 is a TERRIBLE bet. He's a short price and I'm not confident (for a number of reasons) that he'll be able to handle (even) this less than stellar field. So, betting against him is probably a good idea. Unless, of course, he wins and you nail a one number exotic.

Not sure the 5 is the horse to play against the 1. Though the 5 might look good in terms of late kick for someone looking at races from a strictly numeric standpoint, in point of fact, he's really a TERRIBLE CLOSER. He only runs in races that fall apart. Moreover, he always seems to need help --- even in collapsing races. By this I mean that he needs another horse (or horses) to make prior moves. I don't see this race falling apart enough for the 5 to be a factor.

This is a PASS race for me as I don't have a 'positive' opinion and anyone of those not mentioned in the race could win it.

07-10-2011, 01:46 PM	#7
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Two points: The 1 is a TERRIBLE bet. He's a short price and I'm not confident (for a number of reasons) that he'll be able to handle (even) this less than stellar field. So, betting against him is probably a good idea. Unless, of course, he wins and you nail a one number exotic. Not sure the 5 is the horse to play against the 1. Though the 5 might look good in terms of late kick for someone looking at races from a strictly numeric standpoint, in point of fact, he's really a TERRIBLE CLOSER. He only runs in races that fall apart. Moreover, he always seems to need help --- even in collapsing races. By this I mean that he needs another horse (or horses) to make prior moves. I don't see this race falling apart enough for the 5 to be a factor. This is a PASS race for me as I don't have a 'positive' opinion and anyone of those not mentioned in the race could win it.