Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Ernie:
Here are over 150 races that meet your criteria, as outlined above. Most are from the 2010 data base, but the 2011 races were from cards that I handicapped. I included only races where the #1 early was 56% or greater than the #2. Race results are shown on the right and if the #1 early dominant won it should also be highlighted in yellow. I did not record odds info, but much of the legwork has been done if you would like to take a whack at this expanded sample.
Bill
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I computed the WPS results for the top 20 races from the spreadsheet.
This is based on betting $2-$4-$12 for WPS respectively.
Cost: $360
Return: 193
(Loss) $167 (-46%)
Pretty bad....There were only 3 dominant winners out of 20 races and they
were all low odds favorites paying 3.40, 4.00 and 4.80 for win.
However when I will be doing this the next time....
I would be passing these low odds favorites. I would also pass those races
where the dominant early horse does not make my top 5 RDSS contenders.
Also if the dominant horse's high speed for the low req sort is lower than the low speed for the other early/swing contenders then that horse is eliminated.
I would also evaluate how long the horse has been laid off and current form.
So I would have to run this cycle form my perspective only and not use the black box approach and hope to generate profitable results.
Ernie