Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
B Jennet,
I have suggested that subsequent studies include the final odds of the 4 (or 5, for ties) NewPace contenders so we can break down which races were bettable and which not, how many horses could be bet to win, what exacta combos might have been indicated, etc. I think within a month or so, you'll be seeing a few new studies of whole meets in 2011 with this information.
The 'Original' data was based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings and my first crack at NewPace rules as issued in April 2011.
Not sure which comment of mine you're referring to here 'I believe Ted did mention that this was done 'incorrectly' ' - but if you can cite a post, I can clarify.
Ted
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Hi Ted,
There are four columns of NP results. The results of the first (on the left) are quite different from the other three. I'm a little confused by your response, since it looks as though the second column of results used the TM speed figures?
In either one of Bill's or your posts re NP testing, someone mentioned that your first run of testing involved a slight misinterpretation of Dave's algorithm, which you later corrected. Since the first column was so different, I wasn't sure whether these figures were produced by this 'mistaken' method, or whether the difference is produced by some other cause. Regardless, my point was that this method is worth retaining, since it produced a number of longshots that the other three did not. As I said, if we merged them, it should yield an improved ROI.
One thing about these hit rates - they seem to me (as with RDSS) extremely homogeneous, which is very good, but they do imply that the odds-range within which they can be profitable is high. In this sample, NP located about 50% of all winners of 7-1 and over. My guess is that we'll find this percentage to be pretty durable. It really looks like a method best used where at tracks where longshots are plentiful - places like Evangeline are probably optimal - and will do badly at the numerous Chalkdust Downs locations.
I have more to say on this, but I have much more than usual on my plate at this time, so I'll hold off for now.
Cheers,
B Jennet