Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 08-13-2011, 02:20 PM

Mike,

I think your message editor is dropping a few 'nots' here and there

I think perhaps you meant:

'With Ted's RDSS2 , it does not look at ties at all...'

'I've noticed in my studies that some horses with a point or two difference in speed ratings can not be left out of being contenders...'

And Mum, Mike is talking about the NewPace screen, but there is no such thing (currently) as grouping non-contenders in a different group ('hiding in plain sight') as there is in the Analysis Tabs.

Regarding NewPace in general - my aim is to represent the logic published by Dave Schwartz as faithfully as I can (so people who come for NewPace, get NewPace). I can provide options to tweak it how you like, if your records show it can be an improvement, but the Default settings should be as close to published as possible so folks can compare apples to apples as far as knowing whether the method is valid.

Now, lots of folks are already busy at work combining the NewPace output with standard RDSS output, keeping models, etc and creating something new, or hybrid, for themselves or perhaps to share. People do some weird and wonderful things with the RDSS readouts already (some they'll never tell you about) and it was ever thus, since the beginning of the Sartin Methodology. People tinker - it's what they do. Even past the point where they know they ought to sometimes (i.e. why stop with success when you can improvise unto defeat).

Ties (and Speed Ratings within a point of each other) are a part of the NewPace method, with several defined approaches to separate them. Right now, exact ties are broken (check it out and you'll see this is so). I need to add in more methods to separate close ties (because this is a part of the NewPace method), and so I will.

These rules are necessary only because NewPace (as defined by its creator) operates largely (though not entirely) as a kind of black-box. But of course you can separate ties by whatever method you want, using your own handicapping judgement, or other tried and true RDSS factors, or bet-time odds, etc.

In other words, you can tinker, you can make it your own. Or you can ignore it.

Ted

08-13-2011, 02:20 PM	#10
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,259	Mike, I think your message editor is dropping a few 'nots' here and there I think perhaps you meant: 'With Ted's RDSS2 , it does not look at ties at all...' 'I've noticed in my studies that some horses with a point or two difference in speed ratings can not* be left out of being contenders...'* And Mum, Mike is talking about the NewPace screen, but there is no such thing (currently) as grouping non-contenders in a different group ('hiding in plain sight') as there is in the Analysis Tabs. Regarding NewPace in general - my aim is to represent the logic published by Dave Schwartz as faithfully as I can (so people who come for NewPace, get NewPace). I can provide options to tweak it how you like, if your records show it can be an improvement, but the Default settings should be as close to published as possible so folks can compare apples to apples as far as knowing whether the method is valid. Now, lots of folks are already busy at work combining the NewPace output with standard RDSS output, keeping models, etc and creating something new, or hybrid, for themselves or perhaps to share. People do some weird and wonderful things with the RDSS readouts already (some they'll never tell you about) and it was ever thus, since the beginning of the Sartin Methodology. People tinker - it's what they do. Even past the point where they know they ought to sometimes (i.e. why stop with success when you can improvise unto defeat). Ties (and Speed Ratings within a point of each other) are a part of the NewPace method, with several defined approaches to separate them. Right now, exact ties are broken (check it out and you'll see this is so). I need to add in more methods to separate close ties (because this is a part of the NewPace method), and so I will. These rules are necessary only because NewPace (as defined by its creator) operates largely (though not entirely) as a kind of black-box. But of course you can separate ties by whatever method you want, using your own handicapping judgement, or other tried and true RDSS factors, or bet-time odds, etc. In other words, you can tinker, you can make it your own. Or you can ignore it. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-13-2011 at 04:30 PM.