Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

rmath · 08-16-2011, 09:00 PM

First I missed counted the top vdc horse, the top only won 50 not 51 as I posted earlier. Sorry for the mistake.
I stated in that post that New Pace was not doing that well,but as I went over my records I noticed that if I compared the horses from both methods and only used the ones that were listed in the top 3 vdc and were also listed in new pace that the winner was in this group most of the time.
43/50 top horses or 86%
15/22 second
9/11 third horses.
In most of the races I got it down to 1 or 2 final contenders for win. Once in awhile I ended up with 3 win horses.
Instead of looking at 5 or more horses I am able to separate the ties using the combined method.
Dave Schwartz talked about using two different approaches to get it down to only a few horses in each race. He said you should use two very different methods, and IT is my thinking that RDSS & New Pace meet that goal.
I tried it today and caught three nice payoffs at Finger Lakes: 11.60, 15.40 and in the last a 34.20 horse. I played 5 races where I only had a total of 12 contenders. In the two races where I had 3 horses I bet the 2 best prices. One ran 2nd beaten by a 4.10 horse that even tho it was one of the final horses I eliminated it for odds.
Dave suggested that you should be able to get 2/3 of your winners from 1/3 of your contenders and I think this is coming pretty close.

08-16-2011, 09:00 PM	#31
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Regarding the 100 races First I missed counted the top vdc horse, the top only won 50 not 51 as I posted earlier. Sorry for the mistake. I stated in that post that New Pace was not doing that well,but as I went over my records I noticed that if I compared the horses from both methods and only used the ones that were listed in the top 3 vdc and were also listed in new pace that the winner was in this group most of the time. 43/50 top horses or 86% 15/22 second 9/11 third horses. In most of the races I got it down to 1 or 2 final contenders for win. Once in awhile I ended up with 3 win horses. Instead of looking at 5 or more horses I am able to separate the ties using the combined method. Dave Schwartz talked about using two different approaches to get it down to only a few horses in each race. He said you should use two very different methods, and IT is my thinking that RDSS & New Pace meet that goal. I tried it today and caught three nice payoffs at Finger Lakes: 11.60, 15.40 and in the last a 34.20 horse. I played 5 races where I only had a total of 12 contenders. In the two races where I had 3 horses I bet the 2 best prices. One ran 2nd beaten by a 4.10 horse that even tho it was one of the final horses I eliminated it for odds. Dave suggested that you should be able to get 2/3 of your winners from 1/3 of your contenders and I think this is coming pretty close.