Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 10-04-2011, 06:30 PM

Correct me if I misrepresent anything (using RDSS2):

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You hid (or made non-contenders for Win betting) the 2 favourites < 2-1, resulting in the ordering shown in BLBL, then chose the #6 and #3 (#7 looked terrible in its last 2 races).

FWIW, the #3 showed serious signs of life last out, pressing for the lead and now he's hustled back in 13 days (while he's still fit?). And although the timer malfunctioned (video splits show 27.0? 51.3? 1:17 1:40.4 145) it likely pressed early fractions of 23+ 48+ easily enough to get the lead today (which it did). It's 9th and 10th lines show it can run fast enough, but it has been out of form for so long before its last race.

A bold move - eliminating BOTH those top ranked favourites from Win position. Sometimes it works and you collect, more often one of them nips you.

Also, FWIW, I don't see ridicule in Mike's post, just skepticism, which has its place. Your explanation was straightforward, thanks. I hope you are able to apply a consistent approach.

Congrats!

Ted

10-04-2011, 06:30 PM	#9
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,256	Correct me if I misrepresent anything (using RDSS2): You hid (or made non-contenders for Win betting) the 2 favourites < 2-1, resulting in the ordering shown in BLBL, then chose the #6 and #3 (#7 looked terrible in its last 2 races). FWIW, the #3 showed serious signs of life last out, pressing for the lead and now he's hustled back in 13 days (while he's still fit?). And although the timer malfunctioned (video splits show 27.0? 51.3? 1:17 1:40.4 145) it likely pressed early fractions of 23+ 48+ easily enough to get the lead today (which it did). It's 9th and 10th lines show it can run fast enough, but it has been out of form for so long before its last race. A bold move - eliminating BOTH those top ranked favourites from Win position. Sometimes it works and you collect, more often one of them nips you. Also, FWIW, I don't see ridicule in Mike's post, just skepticism, which has its place. Your explanation was straightforward, thanks. I hope you are able to apply a consistent approach. Congrats! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 10-04-2011 at 06:37 PM.