Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Re using mostly last lines, Jim, I do tend to start out hitting that 'last line' button and reviewing it closely, but I am cognizant that everyone else out there is doing that too, and decisions made on that basis (I imagine) will tend to produce generally lower mutuels than going back a bit further on a consistent basis.
Ted
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And I believe this is the reason "Doc" changed his initial approach to pace line selection. I don't believe he thought his initial method of pace line selection was "bad", but rather, to common. Even non-methodologists can see that a horse ran a good last race with a high speed rating, so I think Doc came up with the "best of last 3 distance/surface". This gave players an opportunity to land on a horse whose last race may not have been "that good", in favor of a line a little further back that might land you on a price horse. "EVERYBODY" looks at a horses last race. Nevertheless, there is a whole bunch of space between a last race that
"wasn't that good" and just plain old
bad form and bad form is no reason to go further back for a line.
Now that Ted posted up his BL/BL for that race, and going back to the discussion of "turn time", could there be anything worse than a 7f race from CT?? ( lol ) How many "turns" is that race? TEN? (just kidding) It is at least 2 turns, so exactly "WHERE" does the "turn time" occur? Hard to compare that to any turn time at a mile oval. In this case, the horse with the 7f race at CT, although ranked 1st in most categories, it rank LAST in turn time, if I am reading the snap shot correctly. I'm not sure if "TT" is turn time or if "HID" (where the horse ranks 4th) is the turn time. Either way, for a horse that is on top and has so many "1" rankings, 7th or 4th for turn time isn't very good, all other things considered. I would suggest the cause is the 7f line at CT.