Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Re using mostly last lines, Jim, I do tend to start out hitting that 'last line' button and reviewing it closely, but I am cognizant that everyone else out there is doing that too, and decisions made on that basis (I imagine) will tend to produce generally lower mutuels than going back a bit further on a consistent basis.
The bankroll tells the tale ...
Ted
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Ted,
LOL, the bankroll always tells the tale! I agree on going back further when doing turf races, however, for dirt and poly I think sticking with the last line in most cases is the way to go. I do this because, I want to see how strong the low odds horses are if they run back to their last race. I think getting it down to 5 using TE as I learned from Bill is a solid method. I then get the value from betting horses other than top choices in the BL/BL. When the favorite is real strong, passing is usually the order of the day. You can catch a lot of $9-$16 horses this way. Recognizing vulnerable favorites is key to solid win betting.
Vulnerable favorites:
1) Dropping 2 or more classes after being competitive at the higher class last out.
2) Doing something for the first time (stretching out, surface switch for first time, etc.)
3) Claimed last out and going to a lesser barn.
4) Negative jock switch.
5) Hard last race running withing 2 lengths of winner all the way around the track to win or lose by a length or less.
I am sure there are others, but those are some of mine.
Jim