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Another good race Rich...
As for the early pace scenario, I labeled the 6 as a "Wild E" type. I labeled the 2,3, and 5 as E/P.
The 6 is clearly faster than the other E's but has stopped on its own in the last two races. Last race was against a similar pace to what it has handled before and it as a tandem race. So, I will look for this horse to stop again and create an OTE set up. I will look for an OTE runner who can win or finish very close against about a 22.0 44.0 pace.
#1 looks to fit the bill. Line 3 jumps out at me (3-3-2-2) against 21.8 43.8. I also see other successful races against a similar pace.
#1 beat #2,3 and 6 in that tandem race 102 days ago so I eliminated them.
I also eliminated 4 based on having not faced or run well against today's pace.
#5 beat #1 last time out but is an E/P that will have to deal with #6 early which I feel will be too much too handle.
#7 lost narrowly to the 1 in the last race and is my second choice. I looked at 1C position (7th and 5th) in lines 3 and 7 which have 1C times close to today's pace. When compared to lines 3 and 8 for the 1 (3rd position both times at 1C) it looks like the 1 will be closer to the pace and is my top pick.
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