Quote:
Originally Posted by JimG
I agree betting favorites to win on a consistent basis will result in losses, however, why hide the favorite? Isn't it important to note where he ranks and how strongly? If it was to keep you from betting the favorite, why not just skip him and look at the next horse or two on the line as opposed to hiding?
Jim
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Hi Jim,
Doc specifically referred to 'low-odds' horses, not necessarily favorites, but obviously, these are usually the favorites. However there's a big difference between a 6-horse field with 7/5 and 2-1 first and second favorites, and a 13-horse field, where the top two are 7/2 and 4-1.
Your example assumes that low odds implies handicapping value, an assumption that Doc didn't make. He observed, I think rightly, that these are two independent values. Only when the handicapping is finished is it worth checking the odds to see whether they offer value. For handicappers hitting 60% on their top two, a reasonable goal for Sartin players, they'll break even on two horses going off at 5/2, and lose at lower odds. For those hitting 50% (possibly more typical), they'll break even at 3-1, and lose at lower odds. This seems to be a very frustrating fact for many handicappers, since such a high percentage of races have winners at around these prices, but that's the way it is.
Cheers,
B Jennet