Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
conditions of this race:
For 3 YO and up that have not won 3 races (but races entered for $20,000 or less not considered)
OR
3 YO that have not won in 6 months (not counting races entered for $20,000 or less)
The 2, 9 and 7 are older than 3 YO;
The two has one win at NW1X and last was at 25K with Adj SR of 84; probable pace setter in 23.1-46.4-110.7
The nine has not won in 8 starts this year, but has recently run poorly at 50K claimers; best race was at 25K level in race 6. Adj SR of the 25K race = 69; Adj SR in last two was 73 and 76, average for this field, but probably not good enuf;
The 7 has been 2nd at this level in open 25K claimers with Adj SRs of 84 and 83
The 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 are 3YO;
1 - E but slow
3 - P but no good routes; looks slow
4 - P or SP with 4 wins since May 6 but all are at C 10K level, Adj SR of 87 but last was best by two and horse never repeats best efforts; usual range is 74-76
5 - E looks to be rounding into form; best line is 23.4-46.1-110.3
6 - Started year with high hopes; wired field at GP in 24.2-46.9-112; ran a credible 2nd at Woodbine in a 150K stake; pressed and finished 3rd in a 35K claimer in last. Strong contender if he chooses to press - Adj SR of 71; GP routes ran in 83 and 79
8 - Been pressing in sprints and pressed well in one route, with Adj SR of 82
Its just a loose observation for this race but it seems that of the horses that have run routes and sprints locally that the adjusted speed ratings are better for routes than for sprints, so before I eliminate anyone I will match sprint lines to sprint lines and routes to routes.
I'll do that in the morning when I have more time.
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Morning Bill
Just a heads up that the TPR and "adjusted" SR you are seeing on my middle tab are RAW numbers UNADJUSTED by TM for track to track or daily variant. There IS a distance adjustment made by the software itself (I believe mostly involving the first fraction,call)
Best of luck and GREAT work on the Marathon races man
