[For The Lead]

Disclaimer: I DID NOT PLAY THE RACE, so I am just presenting this as a post race review. Anyone who has read my posts regarding how I choose horses for contenders will recognize that I am not choosing any differently here. This IS NOT an attempt at a red board.

OK, so here how I see the race.

#1 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 22 days ago, no reason to go back
#2 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 24 days ago, no reason to go back
#3 - no line, only route races are turf
#4 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 27 days ago, no reason to go back
#5 - no line, no useable line in last 90 days
#6 - no line, last route race was during the Civil War
#7 - nothing wrong with line 1 from 24 days ago, no reason to go back
#8 - no line, no useable line in last 90 days
#9 - no line, last 2 line are horrible, no reason to go back

Ok, so I have the 1,2,4,7
Class does not seem to be a factor with the 1,2,7
Class IS a factor with the #4 and although it does have the highest TE, by far, cheaper horses moving up like this tend to lose that advantage when meeting better horses, so I'll take that with a grain of salt and will not make any adjustments.

The interesting thing here is this, ENERGY does not pick the horses to bet based on final time, TE or the like. Rather, it picks the logical horses based on a match up. ( Ted, if this in incorrect in any way, please jump in with the necessary correction) For that reason it has deemed that the best horses in this match up are the S/P Pressers, 7 and 4. You will see that these two horses are the #1 and #2 ranked horses in the SP column as well as in the PR column. HOWEVER......

If you look at the 5th snapshot "EXDC MATCH-UP", the #2 horse "owns" the first two fractions. Now this generally mean that this horse is expected to make the lead and keep the lead, which is contrary to what the program "picks". In addition, when a horse "owns" the first two fractions, it is time to take the rubber band off the bankroll !!!

It is interesting to note, although the #2 horse did win the race, it did not go wire to wire or anything close to that. It closed!