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One of the problems with running slower fractions is that it opens up the field of contenders to horses that are slower early but that have consistent closing efforts. Not every horse goes two ticks faster if the early pace is one tick slower
Looking at the LPR of the 2 in its last race it actually ran faster late than in its win. So it would appear that the best it can do late is about 90 plus. There are only a couple of others that have consistenly bettered that number.
From the EPR side the 2 has several in the 86 or better range and this is best in field so I think that some one like the 4 prompts the pace and keeps it lively. If the pace is slow the two become vulnerable. A TPR of about 175 or a hair less should be enough today, IMHO.
Bill
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