Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
BJ...
First off , a 2 ex box of 4 horses comes out to $24..not $48 (that would be a Triple box)
Asking for that minimum keeps us from playing races with odds on favorites with low exacts.
My theory is that mostly everything is based on numbers. Why we key on the favorite is that we are staying away from a "Chaos" race. If he is not one of the contenders then there is a unseen factor that the public is not seeing and should avoid it.
Bottom line....as my early posts of daily cards and just betting blindly ...gave us a negative ROI...
Now , we are down to just a certain type race(s) with conditions..and getting positive results...can you ask for more?
Mike
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Hi Mike,
My bad re break-even. I never play 4-horse exacta boxes, and I had mistakenly doubled the number of combinations.
As far as this strategy itself is concerned, I don't see any reason why it shouldn't work - but you know me, I'd like to see a larger sample first. Cheap races at small tracks looks like a possible niche for using NP. If this strategy does continue to work, maybe it's worth trying with identical filters at other tracks. As I said to Ted, it's possible that NP outperforms RDSS in sub-10k races.
I'll try to post again after I've had a chance to take a look at the spreadsheet, which might answer many of my questions.
Thanks again.
Cheers,
B Jennet