Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

SilentRun · 11-20-2011, 02:09 PM

Hi Bill,

I hope I can provide some insight on the 6. IMHO (and it is very humble).
The 6 is OFF-FORM. Check the last 3 races with declining TE and increasing MED... (PP below). I would not consider this horse a win candidate.

Looking at my top RDSS contenders I like the 4-2. Not sure about the 8. And if you consider V%
tiers 4 (0.0), 2 (1.2) and 8 (1.4) I would favor the 2 and 4 over the 8 ALSO.....
The 3 did not make it to my top 5 RDSS but New Pace has the 3 has the pace setter with a near Early Dominance (57%).
I also used the tie breaking speed calculation that Dave Schwartz presented and the 2-3-4 rated higher than the 8.
So it is a close call to exclude the 8 from contention but I am going by the stats.

So I would consider the 3 top choices to be 2-3-4. Standard BTW two best odds.

GL/GS

Ernie

11-20-2011, 02:09 PM	#4
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Parx r6 Hi Bill, I hope I can provide some insight on the 6. IMHO (and it is very humble). The 6 is OFF-FORM. Check the last 3 races with declining TE and increasing MED... (PP below). I would not consider this horse a win candidate. Looking at my top RDSS contenders I like the 4-2. Not sure about the 8. And if you consider V% tiers 4 (0.0), 2 (1.2) and 8 (1.4) I would favor the 2 and 4 over the 8 ALSO..... The 3 did not make it to my top 5 RDSS but New Pace has the 3 has the pace setter with a near Early Dominance (57%). I also used the tie breaking speed calculation that Dave Schwartz presented and the 2-3-4 rated higher than the 8. So it is a close call to exclude the 8 from contention but I am going by the stats. So I would consider the 3 top choices to be 2-3-4. Standard BTW two best odds. GL/GS Ernie Attached Images Last edited by SilentRun; 11-20-2011 at 02:17 PM.