[For The Lead]

The first thing I feel compelled to do is agree with Ted's assessment. There are several good posts on this race. I enjoyed reading them.

Well, here is my weekly review of the “matcher’s” race and all the usual disclaimers apply.
This is not the best race I have ever seen because there are issues with a few of the horses that keep them from getting lines. As you all might remember, I keep fairly strict guidelines regarding line selection, so we’ll see how it turns out.

This is a Grade I race so looking for horses that have been successful in graded races seems to be the order of the day.
OK, first things first. Let’s get rid of the pretenders, 2, 4, 7, 10, 13. They all have a ML=>20/1.
The remaining horses all have a race in the last 90 days so they all remain in for further scrutiny.


#1 – LINE 2, last race was 20 days ago at 10f and I do not use 10f races, line 2 was 67 days ago at 9f, this horse certainly has graded race experience and success at the top level of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#3 – LINE 2, last race was 21 days ago in the mud, I’ll excuse that race and go back one line from 62 days ago, I would rather have a line from a dirt track but there is not one available in the last 90 days, thius horses has had graded race experience and success although not at the same level as the 31 horse, there is no reason to go back further
#5 – LINE 2, last line was 27 days ago on the artificial surface and I will use that as an excuse to go back one line from 83 days ago on dirt, last race is the only race showing on the artificial surface and the horse may not have like it, many people would not use line 2 since the horse showed early speed and faded, however, ENERGY does NOT pick horses based on final time or speed ratings, line 2 shows this horse as a pace player, this horse has had graded race experience and success at the top levels of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#6 – LINE 3, interesting horse in that it shows two races across CD and neither was very good, my initial thought would be to eliminate this horse on that basis, but I will put it in and see what happens, last race was 20 days ago and the second race back was 55 days ago but at 10f and I do not use 10f races therefore line 3 becomes the line from 83 days ago at 9f on the dirt, this is another horse with experience and success at top level graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#8 – NO LINE, this is one of the horses with issues, the horse has two races in the last 90 days, both races are at 10f, since I don’t use 10f races so this horse will not be used, this horse has experience and success at top level graded races but I will stick with my guidelines, its’ last line isn’t good anyway
#9 – LINE 3, this appeared easy at first just use line 1, but the time was so slow perhaps because of the muddy track condition that using that line “dooms” the horse to failure in the software program, line 2 is at 10f and I do not use 10f races so line 3 becomes the line even though it was on the artificial surface, so line 1 was 21 days ago, line 2 was 48 days ago and line 3 83 days ago so the horse has 3 recent races, this is another horse with graded race experience although at lower levels of graded races, there is no reason to go back further
#10 – NO LINE, although I dismissed this horse from the outset, this would not get a line no matter what, it’s last 4 races going back 96 days were all sprints, this horse appears to be a pace player and is very short on class having only had a 3rd place finish in a grade 3 race
#11 – LINE 1, this one is easy the last race is a win just 27 days ago, the only negative is that it was on the artificial surface, this horse has won a couple of grade II races and fits well with this group, there is no reason to go back further
#12 – NO LINE, I really don’t think this horse has a shot, the horse has had some graded race experience and success but al lower levels of competition, its’ last four race being at PrM, MNR, LaD and RP pretty much tells the story, if this horse is to be a factor it must run up on or near the lead and will have a hard time doing that with the #10 horse in the race as well as the #5 horse.

Below are my ENERGY screen shots. You should note two things.
1 – on screen4 ENERGY recommends “EARLY” and under the column heading “EP” you will see the number 1 and 2 ranked horses in that column are the #11 and #5 horses.
2 – on screen5 you will see that the #11 horse owns the first two fractions of the race (designated with “o.oo” at the first two calls)
You may remember a couple of weeks ago there was another horse that had this same attribute.
Another thing to notice is the #5 horse whose line may have been questionable turned out to be a pace player in ENERGY and the second choice based on the EARLY variegate.
The idea is to get horses in the software based on how they should run so the program can "see" the race and make its' best determination as to how the race will run and on that basis make an appropriate suggestion as to which horses may make the best wagers. If you take notice to the total energy figures, the #11 and #5 horses rank 3rd and 4th in total energy.

Anyway, I am just providing this for your information and hope you find it interesting.