[Ted Craven]

Welcome Jim to PaceandCap and to RDSS!

You will get variable advice on this finesse. My own practice is, when shooting for 5 horses from which come the Win and Place horse, to err on the side of Top 5 Total Energy - from well (and consistently) picked pacelines.

In this example, this would eliminate #9 Margaret (a recent maiden claim winner, now vying against NW-3 Lifetime - a bit above her pay grade, this time).

The race went (spoiler alert): 10-6-3-2, the winner paying $3.20 - so everybody got this one. The only reason to play the race was for the Place mutuel ($9.60), or Exacta ($41.20). This time, eliminating the worse than 5th TE retains the #6 - other times it will eliminate a useful Place horse. Success in any given race is not in your control, but consistency of method is!

I might suggest a valuable nuance: when looking at tie-breaks to eliminate down to 5 horses, consider looking at the Analysis Pace of the Race figures (on the Velocity Tab - PoR view), or simply on the Adjusted screen. This shows the pace of the race the horse ran against, whether it finished well or not. When eliminating horses in the neighbourhood of 5th, consider retaining the better ranked PoR horse and eliminating the worse PoR horse. The #6 horse simply had to face a faster pace in its chosen line, its last, than all but the #7. And to its credit, it ran more forwardly than it did in August (not against the paces it formerly handled, but perhaps returning to some kind of previous form) If you use its good races from this Spring, it tops the field.

All the foregoing is often an exercise in too much handicapping, what to speak retrospective handicapping! But on the theme of how to eliminate down to 5, a supplementary analysis like that can often help.

FWIW, another view, which you will read Doc Sartin speak of, is to retain the combination of top 5 Total Energy and top 5 and ties Primary Line Score - all the while trying to retain for consideration a set of horses producing at least the Win and Place horse. Unfortunately in this example, you would not eliminate any more horses using that guidance, and end up with the most likely eliminations - the #6, #7 and #9 - as the bottom tiered BL/BL horses, which in my opinion are not Win Contenders anyway. Then you have to fight it out to see if you would use any of them in a Place or Exacta bet, or pass the race given the low odds fave or bet against it (dicy, here). For me, hard to distinguish between the #6 and #7 as bad-looking horses who might none-the-less deserve a Place/Exacta bet due to price. Easy to choose the wrong horse there.

Anyway, some thoughts about elimination guidelines down to Top 5 (seeking to retain Win and Place horses).

Good luck going forward!