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Old 12-16-2011, 07:17 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,500
I looked at this race from two view points. First I matched all the 6.5 f lines and then again with just 6f lines.

the FPLR in either case and either distance appears to be the 9 by quite a ways.

The 6.5f analysis might have 4 on the lead and the 6f analysis might have 3 on the lead and the 9 likes to sit 3rd or 4th which is perfect for the early set up.

The 3 and 4 can press this pace without getting caught in it, but I like the 4 better from positioning stand point.

9 to win and 4 to place plus exacta boxes. these are the two medium priced favorites and I would not expect ML to hold up. Kinda chalky.

Bill
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