Jeff:
I see you are REALLY hung up on the analysis of fractions. I think the reason you are so hung up on them and having trouble converting your work into winners is highlighted in the post you just made about looking at ONLY the fractions.
Races and finding winners does not work by fractions alone. Why? Because fractions alone do not tell the whole story and it takes the whole story to win. The whole story includes such things as the running style of each horse. For example if a horse is a confirmed "E" horse and there are several "E" horses in the race then there is a likelihood that the pace of the race will be faster than one might otherwise expect. Therefore, the fractions will not go as stated in the printouts. The first fraction will go faster than the printout indicates while the third fraction will go slower, at least for the "E" horses. Therefore, the construction of the race will have a more significant effect on the outcome of the race as compared to the fractions alone.
The bottom line is that you can not and should not look at the fractions in such a vacuum. They do not exist in a vacuum. They are only an indication of what you might expect. The fractions are there to help you visualize how the race might actually be run. Who will take the lead? Who will press? Who will get stuck in traffic? Will there be a traffic jam? Use the fractions to answer questions like this to determine who will cross the wire first.
Hope this helps.
Gary
|