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Old 01-27-2012, 03:47 PM   #8
For The Lead
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
[QUOTE=Bill Lyster;77495]
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post

ST (stake races).................= $1.50 dollar net
AL(allowance race).............= $0.58 dollar net
SA (starter hcp races).........= $1.27 dollar net
MS (maiden special weight)..=$0.48 dollar net
MC (maiden claiming)..........= $1.13 dollar net
OC (optional claiming).........= $1.94 dollar net

We started with a dollar net of $1.85 and except for the 'OC' which is $1.94 (just .09 higher) these are terrible, but if they are terrible then something had to be good. It was."


FTL:
If I understand you correctly are you saying that Claiming races are excluded from the above sample? I assume that you do not consider optional claiming races as claiming races even at the lower end of the spectrum (like OC 25 NW whatever?) - is this the case?

Eye opening post and thanks for sharing.

Bill
Hello Bill,

No, sorry if I wasn't clear. The beginning sample that returned a dollar net of $1.85 included all of the above as well as "CL" (claiming races). What I did was break down that $1.85 by race types, showing all the negative dollar nets first. Having completed that, the only race type left was "CL" (claiming races), which is where the profit from this particular stat came from. Without breaking it down this way, you would just look at the original $1.85 and say "oh well".
Then I went further and further by breaking just the claiming races down by sex. Then by surface. Then I showed the return for the worst track and the best track. Finally, I went back to the "OC" that was $1.94 and simply broke that down by sex to show that there was, indeed, a profit there as well.

No, I don't consider an optional claiming race (OC) to be the same as a claiming race (CL). The reason being, if you look at the entire condition, it is an Allowance Optional Claiming race and they are run under allowance type conditions, such as NW1X, NW2X and etc.

My point to this thread was to simply point out, that if you only model by distance and surface, you may not find profitable areas that can be exploited.
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