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Old 02-02-2012, 01:44 PM   #1
lsosa54
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
New Pace - Reg Speed Sort - Opinions?

I don't see how the sort is valid using the horse's last 10 lines, IF the lines, as in many cases, are completely different that today's conditions. Let's use 2 contenders from the last race Richie put up in the Matcher's Forum from FG - a 5.5 dirt sprint.

High Toned has 7 turf lines - 5 short sprints, 1 long sprint, 1 mile route. 70% of his races have nothing to do with today’s condition.

Myleka has 6 route lines, 1 on the turf. 60% of his races have nothing to do with a dirt sprint and even one of the dirt sprints is on a good track.

I consider dirt, turf, and poly to be completely separate worlds differentiated even more so by distance structure. There are tracks where you will get fields with fairly homogeneous lines but a lot of the time, contenders have lines like these.

I don't see what kind of confidence I can have using these 10 races for each horse to determine a high low when today's race is a 5.5f dirt sprint.

Thoughts welcome.
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